Sep
22
2009

  Back On Top At Cake

I'm back near the top of the Cake Financial investor list, and I wasn't even going for that! I guess getting back to active trading, even if it's only two hours per day, is working for me :-).

As of right now I'm #19 out of about 8,000 investors signed up with cake. I estimate it's 8,000 because they say they put the top 1% in the "elite" list, and right now there are 80 names on the list.

The cake folks have some complicated algorithm they use to rank investors, and risk is taken into consideration. Obviously, since my returns are pathetic compared to a lot of the others on the list. But it's just the #3 guy and me in the top 50 with very low-risk portfolios. Most people using cake tend to take more risks with their money.

But I am very concerned with portfolio conservation right now rather than portfolio accumulation. It's not about making big money, it's just about making some money, net. September has some nice gains since I cashed out about 75% of my GLD holdings around $98. I'll buy it back (and probably then some) when it dips. Might get back down in the $70s, then I'll hold until it goes up over $100 again. Buy low, sell high. Simple stuff.

The rally is teetering towards the top. The major indexes just finished another sell setup, but it's not "perfected". I'll wait for this "perfection" to occur before I get back into shorts. Although I probably won't wait for the entire countdown phase, I'll just trade based on the setup. I don't think the rally will last through another full count of 13. And if I'm wrong, well, I've been setting my stops pretty tight so I don't lose much.

But I do want to be in on the crash. It never came to pass in July like I originally thought. Now I'm guessing October, but it could be January. It's a shame I missed out on this rally, but it was unavoidable. I saw the technicals pointing to buy back in March, but I made the decision to stay out since I was having a baby, and there was no telling how long the rally would last. If it only lasted until, oh, April 13th I would've been in a world of hurt. But the darn thing sped on for months, so I just have to sit out and wait for it to end. Lost opportunities are easier to get over than actual losses.