Sep
24
2009

  More Bear Market Rallies

I think this tidbit that has been brought up on Minyanville repeatedly lately is encouraging (encouraging from my bearish perspective, that is):

The data point that continues to vibe is that the Nikkei rallied 20% six or more times—and 50% or more four times—since the secular bear market began in 1990 and is still 74% lower since it began.

So although I think the recent rise in the market is just a rally in the midst of a bear market, I don't have to feel too bad about missing it, since there will most likely be more. I don't really care much about missing it from a financial perspective, I don't think I would've placed big money on it even if I had made the decision to trade on it in March, but I am bummed out from an experiential perspective. I haven't yet caught a big rally, so I haven't been able to learn how to do it from experience. I have been on the right side of the downturns though, so at least I have that.