Nov
03
2009

  Waiting Impatiently For Market Close

I've been thinking about how to proceed trading-wise while William naps. He's going to wake up soon (I usually feed him at 3pm), so I need to finalize my plan.

I'm only short two markets right now-- the Nasdaq and China. For the China ETF it looks like my pattern might not complete, but I won't know until the market close. This is because the pattern depends on closing prices. And even at 3pm it's too soon to tell because the price is close to the target. If my pattern breaks, I'm not going to wait for the previous stoploss I set, I'm going to sell at the close.

Nasdaq looks less likely to break pattern, but it might. Same deal with them, I've got to be ready to trade around 3:55pm.

The bigger question is whether to go long. It does appear that the Dow & S&P will bounce up again. But it's not clear that they'll reach their previous highs, although they might. The rally is so tenuous at this point, all technical signals point to exhaustion. That said, it's still a rally-- we haven't hit any lower lows yet that would indicate the market has turned around, it might just be consolidating before another leg up. It's just that the odds of it going higher than before are smaller than they used to be.

On one hand, going long makes sense because I'm aware I might only be long for a week or so, I'm ready to trade fast. On the other hand, if support breaks, the odds are good that the prices are going to fall HARD, and then I should be well-invested in my short ETFs.

I am a trader, after all, not an investor. I shouldn't be afraid to play short-term trades (but still measured in days, not minutes).

OH! Something to make my life easier-- Terry is in from the fields. He'll be able to watch William from 3:30pm-4pm so I can focus. Good.