Dec
18
2009

  The Tree Is In The House / Gold Is On My Mind

I'm not sure when Terry did it, but when I went downstairs to start dinner I saw the tree in the corner of the dining room just where I wanted it. Yay! It looks pretty good, if it'll hold lights and a few ornaments I may stick with juniper for future years.

I don't think I'll decorate tonight, I'd like to finish putting together my year-in-review video. We've got at least 4" of snow already, which renders our driveway impassable, so I'm not going anywhere tomorrow. At least not anywhere out of walking distance. If the snow stops and it's not too windy we may go for a walk-- to get the mail and check for packages if nothing else (our packages get left 1/4 mile from the house when the trucks can't get down the driveway).

I did start baking Christmas cookies. I made 2 trays this morning before 9am, while I was feeding William his breakfast. More specifically, when I had William sitting on the kitchen floor feeding himself puffs until I had the sweets in the oven.

I still haven't done the laundry I wanted to finish on Wednesday (didn't do it Wednesday since I had to rescue the cat, Thursday I was running errands with William, and today we went out before the snow to get some groceries and I've been working on the video). I'll get the laundry done tomorrow, since I don't have to trade.

I've been buying GLD since Tuesday, but my order didn't execute today. When I saw it was heading down again, I put in an order for just above what I considered a likely support level. But I guess it never made it that low. Which is still good, since it bodes well for my existing holdings, I've stocked up pretty well on the dip this week.

But I don't recommend anyone else buy gold now unless they don't need the money and plan on holding it for a year at least. Because while there is a chance that it won't go lower than it did today, I think it's more likely that it'll make new highs fairly soon (within 4-5 weeks) then come tumbling down lower than it got this time. And casual investors aren't going to be able to time it right to get out at the short-term high. But if you're a trader, I think we'll see a very tradeable short-term swing.

For the general investor, if gold gets below $1000/ounce (or around $100 per share in GLD), then I'd say go ahead and buy if you want a long-term holding. While there is a chance gold will get down into the $800s/ounce, if you wait for that you might not get in at all since there's no guarantee we'll ever see that price again. But if we do, I'll be buying physical gold for sure. This pure fiat monetary system the US has now has only been in place since the Nixon administration, so we don't really know how that's going to work out for us all long-term. Gold, however, has been used to buy goods and services for millennia. Call me paranoid, but wouldn't you rather be safe than sorry? I'm also tracking the price of silver, I'm ready to buy physical silver coins as soon as my charts give a signal, it's more affordable so no need to wait for a long-term low. From a practical standpoint, it's going to be more useful than gold anyway during a collapse of the monetary system since it comes in smaller denominations.