Nov
21
2008

  Another Trading Quote

Another from Minyanville (from Todd Harrison, attributed to John Brett), today is the first time I've heard this one:

If you're selling when they're buying, you'll be laughing when they're crying. If you're buying when they're selling, a cardboard box will be your dwelling.

Now that the Dow is finally headed down again (I'm still in mostly cash, since I knew it had to drop further before it bottomed out), I'm back to paying attention to the market. But if there is no rally off of the $7,505 level (and my guess is that there won't be a rally from here, although I'm not trading on that hunch since it really is a guess since the technicals can't predict which way it will go at this time), then we could be looking at Dow $6,000. I think it's quite likely the bottom will be below that, but it's too soon to tell by how much. But for any of you long-term investors looking for an entry point, you might want to start buying in around that level. The market might not get there for several months yet, but then again, the drop to-date has happened quickly relative to previous historical price drops, so I think there is a chance we could hit that level before year-end, but I do think it's a small chance, and it's more likely to hit in January or February. And then I suspect the market will bounce around the bottom for awhile until the next bull market begins. I don't know when I'll get back into the market. I have been charting quite a few sectors (I'm using the DeMark Indicators now), waiting for the bottom. My entry point could be sometime in November or December, but I am still not sure if I'll be "all-in" or just partially in for a rally. It really depends on how the charts develop. But finally, it does appear that the "consolidation" period is over and we're starting to get some real movement again.