Feb
17
2009

  Trading Action!

Whoo! Finally some action on the tape. Of course, now that there's a day it would be fun to sit and watch the charts all day, I've got an appointment with the midwives.

I finally decided to sell oil. It was my own dumb fault for missing the first stop-loss cutoff, and I don't see anything on the charts that would mitigate its downward trend at this point. Although I did set my order well out-of-the-money (USO is trading at $23.90, and I placed my sell at a limit of $25.00) it may very well execute today if there is enough volatility. It makes sense to take the loss now, get out at $25, and so if it goes down to $10 or something I'll be have the cash to repurchase more shares than if I just let my losses ride down to $10 and hold onto the stock until a recovery.

I set trade triggers to sell my other market-long positions, XLF and QQQQ. Now, those are still looking alright technically, but I've learned my lesson by missing my first stop-loss on the USO. I don't think the price of those two is going to get down to my cut-off today, but if it does, I don't want to be trapped in them because I was out running errands. I set the triggers to not expire until the end of the month, so it does take the pressure off me for checking the market every day. I just hope the prices stay afloat until there's a rally I can sell.

It might be time to sell gold (GLD) as early as next Thursday. At the rate it's going, it looks like it will complete the full TD Countdown to 13. If it does, I'm selling. It's unlikely to stay strong for the long term without first falling back. I'll load up again during the dip. When I bought at $90, I figured it was a multi-year play, so it's interesting that we're seeing a nice spike now. There's little reason for GLD to be up in a deflationary period, so I'll take advantage of the weird run-up and cash out.

Still looking for exit signals for my TIPS and AGG (both bond ETFs), but those are relatively dull stocks to track. I'll have to find some other bond funds to replace them, so hopefully some other sector of bonds will be in a "buy" pattern when these two hit their "sell" target.